BNPLs: 2024 vs. 2025 Adoption

Hello!

I pulled a half-year of payment data across three high volume clients because I expected Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage to have risen in 2025. Economic uncertainty, “flexible pay” in the media more and more, Door Dash making headlines by partnering with Klarna.

Instead, I found that BNPL's share of orders was down 13% year over year (H1 2025 vs H1 2024).

Where does AOV come in?
• BNPL AOV is +15.5% higher than non-BNPL in H1 2025.
• BNPL AOV was just +8.3% higher than non-BNPL in H1 2024.
• BNPL AOV gap widened by 86.7% YoY

So shoppers are choosing installments less often, but when they do, they are spending a lot more per order.

Important note: All merchants considered in this data saw an increase in overall order volume in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024.

Why bigger BNPL orders are be good
BNPL processing costs more than a straight credit card. On small low margin carts that fee stings, on larger revenue orders you have more gross margin dollars to stomach the fee. If consumers are selecting BNPLs less frequently, but on higher value orders, that pattern can actually work in the merchant’s favor. The combination of overall order volume going up, BNPL usage going down, and BNPL AOV going up is the best case scenario for merchants.

Reminder: all fees are negotiable
If you do real volume you can push BNPLs on pricing. Ask for an overall lower rate, or per order caps above certain order values. Do not be afraid to play hardball and remove a BNPL from your site if they claim they won’t budge. There is wiggle room.

Same story with your standard credit card processor - their rates are negotiable. Your business is valuable to them. Threaten to switch providers if you have to. There is wiggle room!!!

Why BNPL adoption may be sliding
My theory is that one click payment methods (Shop Pay, Apple Pay, Google Pay) are winning low ticket mobile checkouts, and taking share from BNPLs. This breakdown shows how quickly Apple Pay is being adopted through time.

What do your stores say?
I want to see if what pattern shows up in your data. If you are willing to share (anonymously or not) please make a submission at the link below:

→ Click me to submit!

Thanks for reading,

John Sciacchitano
E-com Heads: Scale or Die Trying